Why I Am Not Bearish Bitcoin. . . and will be surprised if we break down below 1st and 2nd quarter lows


The number one reason I remain bullish bitcoin is that the basis in bitcoin for the most part remains in a backwardation

Notice that Sep futures go into contango on every dip
Not so for ethereum, carrying charge remains on dips and rallies, which is healthy for a bear market


Bitcoin tested but did not break June lows. Ethereum and all other alts traded on Bitmex broke June lows. . . . moreover the alts all continued to make new lows. . . bitcoin did not.

Bitcoin failed to penetrate 1st Quart Low, and remains substantially higher than June low
Ethereum penetrated June low and has made new lows.


The random number generator indicates this is a low risk buy zone on quarterly, weekly, 8 hour, 6 hour and 4 hour.

Quarterly 3 candle correction from quarterly 9
Weekly says this is buy time
8 hour says this is buy time
6 hours says this is buy time
4 hour says this is buy time


The basis, relative strength, the timing indicators all say it is time to pull the trigger and risk 1st and 2nd quarter lows. Yes, if we break it will be hard but that is fear. . . everything else says this is a low risk time and place to be a buyer.



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