IT’S A DANCE . . .

Dancing Goats
Another Dancing Goat

BIAS

How I define a trend is my bias. . . . and how you define a trend is your bias! And with bitcoin I have a very bullish bias . . . for good reason . . . and while I will go short bitcoin in trading . . . I will never go net short. . . so that is my bias . . . apart from my arbitrary definition using the 2 week high or low as the benchmark.

WHY I REMAIN A BULL

We took out the 2 week low . . . which by my definition makes this a bear market . . . but the manner which it did keeps me a bull. . . here’s why.

Spot Price Ethereum. Source: Poloneux. Spot market never broke 400
Dollar Price of Ethereum derivative on Bitmex 30 minute crash below 400. Perp usually trades above spot and has nice funding payout for shorts. Stays in contango which makes for orderly bear markets. The backwardation reversed the market.
Ethereum price in terms of bitcoin. Note: The rise in bitcoin was fueled by exit from ethereum and other alts. Bitcoin rallied without ethereum. But the dollar price of ethereum remained relatively steady, giving eth bag holders complacency. When dollar price of bitcoin declined, so did ethereum. Etherum crashed to new lows, bitcoin dropped under 6900 but nowhere close to 6000. The price actions suggests that dollar price of ethereum is about to decline substantially, in as similar manner as the decline measured in bitcoin. While I missed the decline in bitcoin entirely, I rode this one all the way down from well over 7000 and sold more today. A similar collapse in the dollar price of ethereum will bring a panic to the bag holders.
Dancing Nigerian Dwarf Goats

A RACE TO THE BOTTOM?

Those making a bearish case imply all alts are on a race to the bottom and apparently this will drag down bitcoin in a sympathetic move under 5000. I agree with a race to the bottom of the alts.

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Ugly Old Goat

Ugly Old Goat

Ugly Old Bitcoin Standard Bearer