Ugly Old Goat
4 min readApr 19, 2024


On April 6, 2018, I wrote my second article on Medium entitled HOW TO ACHIEVE THE SAME RESULTS OF A PROFESSIONAL BITCOIN TRADER WITHOUT TAKING THE INHERENT RISKS, outlining the powerful tool of dollar-cost-averaging Bitcoin, also known as DCA. It remains the most popular article I have ever written.

But that was then and today is now. Right?

In March as bitcoin traded at new all-time highs of over $70,000 the fear of missing out set in, also known as FOMO.

Your old college friend recommended buying Bitcoin in 2013 at under at $90. Why buy something that is just hot air? After all, Bitcoin has no intrinsic value.

“I did not buy Bitcoin then under $100 so why would I want it now at over $70,000?”

Five years later in 2018, the same irritating ex-roommate (no longer a friend) recommended to start DCA bitcoin at $8,000.00. This time he sent me a stupid article written by this ugly old goat fellow linked to his website.

And a year later in 2019 this same asshole, now a former friend and slob ex-roommate sent an article by the same old goat entitled How I Became A Bitcoin Multi-Millionaire With Half My Social Security Benefits with Bitcoin trading at $9,000.

And then he sent me an update three years later in November 2022.

So here we are in April 2024 with Bitcoin over $60,000 and this obnoxious fool, asshole, former friend, slob, and ex-roommate sends me another article by the same Ugly Old Goat entitled IT’S NEVER TOO LATE FOR BITCOIN!

No wonder his friends call him by his first name! UGLY.

In October 2021 bitcoin reached a peak of over $60,000. The two previous peaks were followed by a 1-year decline. The first peak took one year to return to black. The second peak took six months to return to black. The third peak took peak took 19 months to return to the black.

In March 2024 Bitcoin briefly reached another all-time high demonstrating the value of Bitcoin as sound money.

Note: The dollar-cost averaging study below started with the worst possible timing at the October 2021 peak of $61,686.28 based on the daily close on the 15th of each month. The market declined for 13 months and lost 50% in equity. It returned to the black in 19 months and Bitcoin is now trading near all-time highs measured in paper United States dollars.

You can compare this data with the previous two peaks.

Note: The dollar-cost-averaging study below was started on the December 2017 peak to reflect the very worst timing for Dollar-Cost-Averaging. The market declined 13 months losing over 50% in equity and it took another six months for DCA to be in the black.

Note: The dollar-cost-averaging study below was started at the January 2014 peak to reflect the very worst timing for Dollar-Cost-Averaging. The market declined for 13 months losing over 50% in equity. It then took another year for DCA to be in the black.

Conclusion: Bitcoin has experienced a 13-month decline from its October 2021 peak to its November 2022 bottom. This matches the decline durations from the 2014 and 2017 peaks as well as the percentage decline. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. The 2014 bear market took one year to recover using DCA. The 2017 bear market took six months to recover using DCA. Bitcoin is the only pure free market on earth.

I hope this helps.


PS: 99% of my work is available free to the public at To learn about Bitcoin and support my work you can purchase my two books (hardback and digital editions) at a substantial discount from Amazon and receive my Advanced Equity Trading Starter Kit where you will get at least 5 items of merch plus a Jade Wallet.

I am pivoting the Ugly Old Goat Lifetime Membership (My life, not yours!) to the Advanced Equity Trading Intensive 8-Week Workshop. This will be announced next week.

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