FOR UNTO US A CHILD IS BORN. . .
Handel’s Messiah is a true classic. . . and this little ditty is my favorite part. Please enjoy while you read this shorty.
In traditional markets, usually not much happens over holidays . . . because the markets are closed . . . but bitcoin is different.
First, because it is a 24 hour 365 day per year market that never closes . . . and Second, because many part time traders with real jobs can devote more time over holidays to trade . . . so we can expect volatility but with little market direction. . . . and if we get a direction . . . it will likely get undone in January.
The way I measure trends we are once again in bull market. . . but with resistance all the way up. . . After, taking out the two week highs I covered my short positions at a small loss looking to go long . . . turning around at at average 3675 in June futures. . . . basis remains bullish . . . backwardation in the June futures remains steep.
Remember, many large traders become small traders. Most small traders remain small traders. A few small traders become large traders. And the wise large trader voluntarily becomes a small trader again!
Once again, I elected to reduce my trading equity to 2 BTC, after a successful run turning 2 BTC into 22+BTC since November 12th. . . . let’s see if I can manage a repeat.
Again, I want you to see this so you know it can be done consistently. . . but it requires all the discipline I am teaching here.
Remember you can be the very worst technical trader in the world and still succeed with good money management, and you can be the very best technical trader and get rekt due to poor money management.
You can be wrong 70% of the time and still come out ahead with good money management. You can be right 70% of the time and get rekt without good money management. My emphasis is now and always will be money management.
2018 was a very difficult year for me. . . . after finishing in the Bitmex Top Ten Notational in 2017 I struggled just to break even most of the year, but finished with a bang catching the entire move down from 6400 to 3200. But while I profited in trading, my total net worth has been reduced due to the declining market. . . and due to the fact that at no time did hedge my entire HODL. However, I did reduce my HODL by half over well over 10,000 and some at the peak over 20,000 and invested in my local economy.
The bad news is that Bitmex has shut down my account. . . . for supposedly violating terms of service. I am a Mexican resident but U.S. citizen. This is clearly permitted in the terms of service. . . .
1.4: By registering as a Member you represent and warrant:
- a) that you have accepted the Terms; and
- b) that you are at least 18 years of age and have the capacity to accept the Terms;
- c) that you are the legal owner of the funds you add to your account with BitMEX and that the same funds derive from a legitimate source;
- d) that using BitMEX services does not constitute a breach of your home jurisdictions’ laws;
- e) that you are aware of the risks in using the services provided by BitMEX. These risks include the high volatility risk of Bitcoin itself, the fact that you may lose all of the funds in your trading account if the market moves against you;
- f) that you will not be involved or initiate any form of market manipulation, including spoofing orders or otherwise;
- g) that the information or documents you provide as part of any ID verification process are correct, genuine and up-to-date;
- h) that any Bitcoin withdrawal address you provide is your own and that you have full control over this address;
i) that if you are located in or a resident of the United States of America or Québec (Canada) you understand and acknowledge that you are prohibited from holding positions or entering into contracts at BitMEX. If you are located in or a resident of Cuba, Crimea and Sevastopol, Iran, Syria, North Korea and Sudan, or any other jurisdiction where the services offered by BitMEX are restricted, you also understand and acknowledge that you are prohibited from holding positions or entering into contracts at BitMEX. You understand and acknowledge that if it is determined that any BitMEX trading participant has given false representations as to their location or place of residence, BitMEX reserves the right to close any of their accounts immediately and to liquidate any open positions.
My account was flagged after crossing the border for the holidays and apparently logging in from the USA.
After sending the proof of Mexican residency with the green card Bitmex still elected to shut down my account simply because I am a U.S. citizen. I have the highest regard for Bitmex so I can only assume they are feeling a great deal of heat from U.S. regulatory bodies, probably at the behest of U.S. competition. Again, nothing in the U.S. comes close to competing with Bitmex and their competitors know it!
I have been trading for nearly 50 years and Bitmex is hands down the best exchange I have ever traded on, including regulated and unregulated exchanges. I am confident of their solvency and integrity. The major risk trading at Bitmex is the very real possibility they will get shut down by U.S. authorities just like the domain seizure of BTC-e.
In such an event, I am certain they will be solvent and that all funds will be returned but at the risk of being filtered through the prying eyes of the United States government and/or the funds being unavailable for days, week, or months. So keep you exchange balances at a minimum.
Unfortunately, with the closure my trading history is also no longer available, although I have asked that it be restored or sent to me. Further, all my referrals have been lost which is the only income I have supporting this blog.
So the new Bitmex account is exclusively in the name of my wife who is a Mexican citizen and Mexican resident, meeting the apparent new terms and conditions.
I will continue to post my position until the website comes up. After that my published position will only be available to paid subscribers. Most of my content will remain free. Hopefully, the website will be up shortly after the new year.
If you like my work and want to continue to support it, please use the referral link to my wife’s account. . . you will get a 10% discount for six months.
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Hope this helps.
Thank you for your support.