EXTHIT UPDATE . . .

(Pronounced with a lisp and weak wrist)

Remember how Tone Vay’s sounded like a broken record fool for insisting BITCOIN was going to break the 6,000 barrier? Doug Polk even made a bet with him early last May!

Professional gambler Doug Polk made a 10,000 bet with Tone Vays last May . . . and lost!

Tone starting making the call back in January. We tested it 6 times and finally broke it on the 7th try in November.

He was scoffed at, ridiculed, sold it on the 6th attempt, scoffed at again . . . but never wavered.

A Tone Vays Classic Call

I disagreed with Tone only because the market went into backwardation every time we tested 6,000 and while not turning bearish, warned against buying the 7th test of 6,200 since backwardation disappeared.

I was fortunate to recognize the fundamental change caused by the BCrash split and turned around my longs, went short at 6,400 and added to it at 6,200 and again at 5,500.

What next?

Well, the same pattern Tone Vays emphasized was bearish, a similar pattern is developing on the Coinmarket Cap. The Cap has been testing the 55% ares since early August 2018, and once convincingly penetrated the likely move will be to a 70%-85% dominance with an eventual turn to over 90%.

Coin Market Cap has been testing 55% since early August. A break out to upside is likely.
Thank you https://twitter.com/bitcoinsicario for providing this illustration. Did not know it was on tradingview.com

Now Bitcoin dominance does not reflect USD price of bitcoin, but simply how much Bitcoin dominates against competing standards. Fundamentally, much has been written why THE CRYPTO WORLD is doomed to fail and why THE BITCOIN STANDARD will rise like a phoenix from the ashes. . .

The big question is will bitcoin continue in a downward trend measured in USD in sympathy with the crash of THE CRYPTO WORLD?

Technically, the way I measure trends we are in a bear market. . . I define the trend as trading below 2 week low bear, trading above two week high bull . . .and the first time we pop above the previous week’s high you sell . . . risking the two week high. Well, we just got this, we barely broke above it on December 17th and decisively broke through it today . . . giving an excellent opportunity to exit all longs. . . and now I am looking to go short anywhere from here all the way up to 4115. . . I will likely also sell ETH and BCH again basis BTC.

It should be noted that BITMEX is shutting down my trading. While I am a resident of Mexico I remain a U.S. citizen so apparently I am prohibited from trading according to their terms of service. I thought the account was in my wife’s name but apparently it was not. That put my account on liquidation only and gave me 7 days to exit. . . . which was perfect for me to exit all my longs today. Bitmex handled the situation very fairly.

Interestingly, I crossed the border of the weekend visiting family and apparently logging in from the U.S. created a red flag. So I now join the august company of Tone Vays . . .banned from Bitmex. . . . which begs a very serious question . . . is it worth it to be a U.S. citizen . . . and deserves an article why I have more freedom in Mexico than my birthplace . . . a situation I could not imagine 40 years ago. Apparently, for U.S citizens we have a one world government via treaties. . . giving the SEC and other federal agencies jurisdiction over U.S. citizens in otherwise sovereign nations. The result is many fine business opportunities, like Bitmex, are simply not available for citizens of the “land of the free.” The regulations make doing business with U.S citizens prohibitive.

My Final Equity 2 BTC turned to 22+BTC since Nov 6th

For those who mistakenly value market timing and price over money management, my long position actually began as a mistaken fat finger trade. I mistakenly bought 10,000 bitcoin perp and did not catch it until the following day. But in examining the market, it apparent there was little risk of penetrating 3,000. I had orders to buy it if we got the capitulation below 3,000 but I did mind owning it at 3,200 to 3,400.

Normally, when I fat finger I immediately exit the trade. . . but in this case I did not even know it happened. . . and I actually added to it on a scale down once I studied the market.

Further, when the June futures opened at a discount I quickly doubled down, but that is when I found out I was banned, so was only able to accomplish the task with account belonging to a Mexican citizen family member.

So I am flat now looking to go short.

Picked up another 1.5+ BTC on a double down buying June futures at discount shortly after coming on board. Sold Perp against my long June futures as we took out last week’s high. I was also able to trim and buy back the first time we took out the highs.

Again, I have elected to publish this so the average trader can see how it is done. I will download the actual trades since November 1st and forward the history to all subscribers once the website goes up. . . moreover, subscriptions will continue to show a live trading account. This feature will cease once the website comes on line.

Remember, many large traders become small traders. Most small traders remain small traders. A few small traders become large traders. And the wise large trader voluntarily becomes a small trader again!

The most likely scenario is we rally over the holidays and resume the bear in January. However, I caution everyone not to be exuberant bears . . . do not go net short . . . only sell a portion of your HODL for trading purposes.

The reason I say this I will not be surprised at all that when we reverse it will be fast and furious trapping all those who sold their hodl under 6,000. . . by the same token a capitulation well below 3,000 is likely in the cards . . . now as always, this is not a prediction. . . no one knows . . . especially this Ugly Old Goat. . . but what I am teaching you here is to be prepared for each and every scenario . . . and manage you equity wisely and accordingly. . . this is the secret to success . . . not magical buy and sell points.

If you are still looking for magic buy and sell points you have missed what I teach entirely. Trading is dynamic, not static.

Below it the update of dollar cost averaging.

Notice the sharp drop in USD value. This 40%+ drop was only matched in January 2015. This indicated to me it was unlikely $3,000 would be broken during this exhaustion selling.
Dollar Cost Averaging starting at the December 2017 peak saved the investor from a disastrous loss. Now is an excellent time to accumulate bitcoin.

Hope this helps.

UOG

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