DON’T THINK LIKE YESTERDAY . . . AND DON’T THINK LIKE TODAY. . .

THINK LIKE THE FUTURE . . . THINK BITCOIN

UOG STRUGGLING WITH MARACAS

Just this shorty to put forth a wild thought . . . it keeps rattling around my head like the seeds in maracas. Granted there isn’t much brain matter there so it caught my attention. . . and I am moved to share it with you.

For the first time since the late 19th Century Gilded Age, when panics were short lived and localized, we have a truly free market . . . BITCOIN!

No bailout, no government interventions, no change in monetary policies in an effort to correct the situation, whatever it might be.

The only “intervention” is by those BITCOINERS who foolishly entered the fiat system using BITCOIN as collateral. . . . and by fiat I include government fiat as well as private fiat created in THE CRYPTO WORLD. . . which I distinguish from THE BITCOIN STANDARD WORLD.

Thinking like yesterday leads one to believe Herbert Hoover’s policies after the 1929 Crash were laissez-faire exacerbating the situation . . . that simply was not so. The largest part of the bear market was the slow grind from 1929 to 1932 during the Hoover Administration. . . . without Hoover’s interventionist policies the Crash of 1929 would have been of similar magnitude but short lived . . . with a recovery that would likely had averted a second World War.

Thinking in yesterday leads one to believe further intervention by FDR beginning in 1932 was required to save the Nation. . . . when Franklin Roosevelt's policies were based on Hoover’s precedent and prolonged the mess for another seven years and can be argued contributed to the rise of fascism and Japanese militarism.

What we are witnessing is a localized panic limited to THE CRYPTO WORLD that is the result of a huge misdirection allocating BITCOIN for the creation of competing standards by wrong thinking psuedo-Austrian anarcho-capitalists and out right criminals rather than focusing on genuine competition on THE HAYEK STANDARD . . . which is bitcoin and bitcoin alone . . . because BITCOIN is the longest chain, secured with proof of work, with a limited supply, unconfiscatable, and without borders. The idea of competing standards is foreign to Austrian economics.

Thinking like today is applying past market models to Bitcoin which is arguably a big mistake.

Because BITCOIN is the freest market in the world. . . because BITCOIN is the freest market the world has ever known. . . and because the cause of the current panic is not BITCOIN but the misdirection by certain wrong headed elements within BITCOIN trying to create competing standards. . . we are witnessing a transfer of wealth from many old early adopter haves to many new Johnny come lately have-nots. . . which is a very healthy and much needed transfer of wealth. . . and is the amazing phenomena enabled by truly free markets.

Thinking in the future recognizes BITCOIN is a unique anomaly and opportunity unlike any available in the past and unlike anything civilizations will likely see again in the future.

Nevertheless, time tested strategies and principles are required to succeed. There are countless horror stories on-line now of made and lost fortunes in THE CRYPTO WORLD due to this wrong thinking. Peter McCormack recently gave a testimony about his own personal journey.

But THE CYRPTO WORLD thinking is quickly correcting. Again Peter McCormack story is a great testimony to rapid Renaissance of BITCOIN.

So the thought rattling in this empty head, will BITCOIN catch everyone with their pants down by a rapid reversal to 90% dominance? And will this be reflected with a rapid reversal above the 6500 USD level? Or will it continue a prolonged bear market in sympathy with the collapse of THE CRYPTO WORLD?

One indicator that jumps out at me is that as we approach the 15th of this month, if we stay at the level of 3200, the 30 day decline from 5500 will be 42% which is a record decline. The only comparable 30 day decline was in January 15th, 2015 with a 40% decline from 345 to 210.

Above is the results of Bitcoin Dollar Cost Averaging $500 per month from the December 2017 peak. Source: http://www.coindesk.com/price/

Now I am no statistician, and I am sure students much smarter than me can create a more accurate measure or an algorithm, but for the purpose here there is no reason to be so anal.

What pops out to me is that the last time we had such a percentage monthly decline it was the bottom of the market. Will we repeat this time?

I haven’t a clue, but the prudent mind must take this into account just as the prudent mind also take into account that the plunge can continue virtually non-stop to 1500 with a spike reversal, or be slow grinding lower and then sideways building a base for the next wave up.

Again, no one knows . . . but as a trader I must account for each and every possibility.

And the one possibility that thinking like the future brings me is . . . BITCOIN IS LIKE NO OTHER . . . but it is most like the late 19th Century gold standard Gilded Age panics that were sharp but very short lived. A fast and furious rebound back above 6500 is simply beyond anyone’s imagination now . . . and yet history tells us it is a very real possibility that must be taken into account.

In a recent Forbes article Leah Wald put it this way.

There’s blood in the streets.

Wow, hold up, that’s a frightening idiom. It, of course, means that markets are dropping. However, people don’t often remember the rest of the saying. Attributed to Baron Rothschild, the rest of the original quote is believed to be to “buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.”

I fat fingered a trade and did not even catch it for a day. . . and when I examined it decided there was a strong likelihood we would not break the 3000 level, as I, and so many others have orders resting there. So I stuck with it, added to it slightly and will do so again if we get the break below 3,000.

Here is my current position

Hope this helps.

UOG

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