A Classic Calling The Market and Missing the Move With a Twist

Ugly Old Goat
2 min readJan 5, 2024

This is a classic screw-up that deserves your attention.

A truly professional trader studies his mistakes more than his successes. And this one is worth writing about.

Wow! I got the move. Up. Masterfully, I might add. No major mistakes. But that is not all. All the fundamentals, the contango, and the high funding rate sent warning signals to any fundamental analyst.

Technically, we had a breakout. All the moving average traders were long. The majority of break-outs are false, but the real ones just keep going.

We were about to have a major unprecedented Black Swan hyperinflation event to the upside, or we were due for a major correction. Which one was it?

2023 was a huge year for the bulls, but it felt like a bear market up.

I rode this year-end baby up XXX the account from 42,500. I sold on a scale trimming and scalping along the way. I sold out at 45,000+ and sold short at 45,300. I took my profits off the exchange paid my bills, and waited.

The plan was to stay short until we break the December lows. Well, that was my vision at least.

Frankly, I was asleep. Woke up as the market started to break and started covering short lightly. But as it cascaded I reversed. And got liquidated in minutes.

Rarely does something new happen to me in the market. But this was worth writing and laughing about. I have anticipated moves before and missed them. But this one I caught beautifully and managed to mess it up.

Well, the market recovered. Let us see what happens this round.

Hope this helps.



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